Even if one or both of these ballot measures were to succeed in November, it would not necessarily be a harbinger of Democratic success in 2024. Ohio, once considered a critical swing state in presidential contests, has trended ever rightward in recent years. As elections analyst Kyle Kondik recently noted in Politico, the recent “Republican stampede among non-college whites, paired with a college white group that retains a GOP lean” in the state, has been “electorally deadly for Democrats in Ohio.”
Because support for initiatives can be cross-partisan, the results will not be an indication of how voters will behave once actual candidates are on the ballot—Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who faces a difficult reelection contest in 2024, should not necessarily pop the champagne if both measures succeed this November, nor should the Biden campaign.
“If indeed these measures are successful—which if I were a betting person, I’d tend to say that the odds are on their side right now—I wouldn’t necessarily read too much into that as Ohio being supercompetitive at the presidential level in 2024,” Alexander said. “Looking into the future, Sherrod Brown is going to have a heck of a race, regardless of how these measures turn out.”