By claiming they will at some point capture massive amounts of carbon dioxide, though, companies like ADNOC and ExxonMobil can sell world leaders on the comforting idea that not much has to change. Unfortunately, the climate models compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have helped fossil fuel execs make that case. The reports forecast that carbon-capture technologies by midcentury will be able to produce so-called “negative emissions,” drawing down more greenhouse gases than are being emitted worldwide. As Oxy CEO Vicky Hollub has said, capturing carbon “is going to be the technology that helps to preserve our industry,” granting it “a license to continue to operate for … 60, 70, 80 years.” Hollub was part of the UAE’s delegation to COP27. That all of this is hypothetical—while the risks of being wrong are astronomical—doesn’t seem to bother decision-makers much.
UNEP announced in another report this week that the world is on track to warm by three degrees Celsius by the end of this century. Existing national pledges to reduce emissions, meanwhile, would only reduce emissions by 2 percent below 2019 levels, even in the unlikely event that all of those pledges are fully implemented. That’d mean a world on track to warm by between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100. Even two degrees of warming, researchers emphasize, could be catastrophic.
As climate goals grow more remote—and the case against fossil fuels more clear—companies competing with one another to sell the last barrel of oil can be expected to place ever more emphasis on fledgling technologies to deliver increasingly fantastical results. The biggest win for CEOs won’t be getting more of their employees into U.N. climate talks but convincing governments to adopt industry talking points as their own.