The new head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—who co-chaired one of the working groups that contributed to the panel’s special report on 1.5 degrees Celsius—even said in July the world would exceed that target. “We are, I think, committed to at least some degree of overshoot,” he told reporters, citing the insufficient plans on offer from governments. There is no magic trigger pulled should global average temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. This summer, the hottest on record, the world even surpassed it temporarily. “The world won’t end if it warms by more than 1.5 degrees,” Skea told the German outlet Der Spiegel, noting that it would be “a more dangerous world.”
Why do U.S. politicians insist on talking so much about a goal they’re so far off track from? In the United States—a country still ostensibly working toward the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold—domestic oil production is on track to reach record levels this year and next. The U.S. stands poised to become a net crude oil exporter for the first time. Methane gas exports—having only begun in earnest after 2015—are surging; just this summer, the Department of Energy denied a request from green groups to establish comprehensive climate guidelines around the industry. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the Interior Department’s forthcoming five-year guidance on offshore drilling will reportedly continue the sale of leases in the Gulf of Mexico, having rejected calls to block auctions.
“People continue to plan and build and burn unmitigated, unabated fossil fuel,” Kerry barked during a breakfast meeting at the UN climate summit last week, referring to new coal production in Asia. The U.S., meanwhile, remains among the world’s top five coal producers. It’s also projected to be responsible for more than a third of global oil and gas expansion planned to happen before 2030. It’s a surreal feeling, watching top Biden officials stress the importance of reaching a target that the White House itself seems determined to undermine.