Germany, the U.K., and Norway have warned that this legislation threatens Peru’s international climate commitments. The United Nations’ special rapporteur on Indigenous rights has even sounded the alarm that it could fuel further violence against native communities defending their territories. So far, Peruvian lawmakers have appeared impervious to frantic back-channel efforts, including from the U.S., to revert the law. New elections are due in April 2026 at the latest, and a new cohort of legislators might be more susceptible to international pressure. The question, however, is whether the next U.S. administration will actually be paying attention, never mind seeking to encourage human rights, governance, and the conservation of irreplaceable, carbon-rich ecosystems.
“It’s not about left or right. We’ve learned that the hard way. They all base their polices on an extractivist model that doesn’t take into account the rights of nature or Indigenous peoples,” warns Gregorio Mirabal, a leader of Venezuela’s Kurripako people and the climate change coordinator for COICA, the leading federation of the Amazon’s first nations. “There has been some progress; some banks, mainly in Europe, no longer want to finance mining or oil in the Amazon, and some supermarkets won’t stock beef from the Amazon. But it is too little, and soon it could be too late. 2025 will be a key year for the Amazon.”
Much will be determined, at least in part, by which politician is inaugurated president of the United States on January 20 next year. The fate of the Amazon will depend not just on both local policies within the basin but also on global emissions: Carbon released into the atmosphere anywhere on planet earth will not just potentially affect the health of the Amazon but also be amplified by its tipping point. The fate of this irreplaceable, stunning crucible of life, home to around one-third of all species on earth, may depend on decision-makers’ willingness to pursue strong climate policies domestically and globally at the same time. And the fate of us all could, in turn, depend on the survival of the forest.