“The Department of Energy’s methodology for assessing the public interest is woefully out of date,” says Slocum. “Until today, there has been no difference in the review process between the Trump and Biden administrations for LNG exports.”
While climate activists are no doubt glad to see Biden acknowledge the outlandishness of the country’s current gas policies, the reality is that Friday’s decision doesn’t on its own pose a significant threat to the considerable momentum behind America’s booming liquid natural gas export business. The temporary pause on pending decisions will have no bearing on projects already built, which constitute the planet’s single largest source of LNG export capacity. The U.S. will remain the world’s largest gas exporter and is due for a significant expansion over the coming years. Earlier this week, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) found that the U.S. is on course to more than double its gas liquefaction capacity over the next five years. Four major projects—which on their own are slated to expand export capacity by more than 80 percent if completed by 2027—have already been approved and reached final investment decision. “The decision still impacts high profile projects like the second stage of Calcasieu Pass, but U.S. LNG export capacity is still well positioned to see a significant increase,” Enrique Gonzalez, BNEF’s lead analyst for US gas, wrote in an email Friday afternoon. For better or for worse, Friday’s announcement is not a step toward shutting down the fossil fuel industry.
But perhaps the strangest thing about pundits and industry lobbyists’ hand-wringing this week is how little confidence LNG’s boosters seem to have in their own claims about its benefits. Lost amid their cries about Biden’s announcement endangering everything from U.S. energy security to the well-being of our European allies and even the fight against climate change—they argue, dubiously, that gas flows are essential to replace coal in emerging economies—is perhaps the most salient detail about Friday’s announcement: All the White House has pledged to do is take a bit of time to—for the first time in six years—re-evaluate its framework for assessing whether LNG export projects serve the public interest. National laboratories will invite comments from all sides to inform an updated analysis of their effects on “energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment,” per the White House’s press release. If the case for a doubling or tripling of LNG export capacity is so ironclad, then what are gas’s champions so afraid of?