The theory may be comforting for Democrats, but it also contains a heavy dollop of wishful thinking. In the recent Quinnipiac poll, only 29 percent of self-described independents give Biden a positive rating on the economy. A Monmouth University Poll, cited in part by Noah, also found that independents give a Bronx cheer to Biden’s economic record. Only 26 percent of this group approves of Biden’s handling of inflation and only 41 percent award the president a positive rating on “jobs and unemployment.” By the way, these are not just Republican leaners in disguise: Independents in the Monmouth Poll make up 44 percent of the electorate.
Democrats dream of touting Biden’s economic record in a reprise of Ronald Reagan’s 1984 “Morning in America” campaign that led to a 49-state landslide. And the Republicans pulled it off even though unemployment never dipped below 7 percent in 1984. But the Reagan ad worked, in part, because its gauzy imagery evoked feeling tones about the recovery of America from Vietnam, Watergate and the Iranian hostage crisis.
It is hard for Democrats today to credibly talk of a new dawn or brighter skies no matter how upbeat the economic indicators are. The public mood is, at best, schizophrenic. According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence hit its highest point in two years in July. But most Americans, reflecting ingrained pessimism, believe that the current buoyant economy is a mirage. Seventy percent of adults, in the Conference Board study, said that a recession was “somewhat” or “very likely” in the next six months.