The New Republic asked 22 House Democrats who they will support for House speaker when Congress returns to Capitol Hill next week for votes. None waffled. All said Jeffries. “We encourage Republicans to vote for Hakeem,” said Representative Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, after the vote to fire McCarthy. “We will guarantee a more governable House than what we’ve seen.”
There are currently 433 House members—221 Republicans, 212 Democrats, and two vacancies. A successful speaker bid will likely need 217 votes, meaning that assuming no Democrats are absent (a big “if,” given the Covid cases that keep happening among members) and all Democrats vote for Jeffries, the New York Democrat will need five Republicans to support his bid.
Who could those Republicans be? There are more than you might think, at least in theory. The most obvious pickup opportunities are among the 18 GOP House members who represent districts where Joe Biden beat Donald Trump. In some of those districts, Biden walloped Trump: by 10, 11, 14, 16, 18 points. If you’re such a Republican, anticipating Trump at the top of your ticket again, you might think a bipartisan move like voting for a Democratic speaker makes sense. Of course, you’re guaranteeing yourself a primary and likely defeat. But maybe the prospect of a Speaker Jordan is enough to make you say the heck with it.