While Covid-19 probably accelerated the drop in public school enrollment, though, it didn’t precipitate it. And incompetent management of the district can’t explain why public school enrollment has been falling statewide for nearly 20 years. The housing crisis is a critical factor, and it is amplifying the severity of the district’s other problems.
Of course, aggregate statistics about birth rates and population declines only tell part of the story. We also need to consider who is leaving San Francisco. While the Bay Area’s median income has declined slightly over the past three years, the share of households earning six figures or more has only grown. People across the income spectrum are moving out of the area, but low- and middle-income earners are leaving at higher rates. Many of those who stay behind are those who can afford to stay—and who can afford to opt out of public education while the public school system struggles to pay its bills. Meanwhile, the people who suffer the most are the very households that the Local Control Funding Formula was supposed to help: impoverished families that can’t afford to move out of the Bay Area, can’t afford to send their kids to private school, and can’t afford adequate housing.
It gets worse. While California’s public education system is not especially dependent on local tax revenue, plenty of municipal services are. And as middle-class and upper-middle-class residents leave the Bay Area, they take their tax contributions with them. Over time, this will cause the quality of public services to decline, which will in turn encourage more people to leave.