At the same time, it may also be true that if Haley were to drop out, thereby kicking off a very early (and tortuously long) general election campaign, it would help Joe Biden. It is still too early to tell what effect Trump’s numerous trials and legal problems will have on the 2024 campaign. But the ongoing Republican primary might be benefitting him now, by distracting voters from those problems. (Nearly 50 percent of independents still don’t think Trump will be the GOP nominee.) That will change shortly, as Trump’s legal schedule becomes increasingly crowded. He’ll be effectively campaigning from the courtroom for much of the year, and those trials will remind voters that he’s a fraudster, an insurrectionist, and a serial criminal.
A Trump-Haley faceoff will undoubtedly be entertaining. Trump will melt down multiple times a day, as he’s already done this week. If past is prologue, though, there’s no guarantee that his tantrums will damage his chances. But if the general election were to start soon, slumbering voters might wake up and realize the stark choice before them: entrust America again to the sitting president, or to that vulgarian slouching in the defendant’s chair.