“To the extent that the votes in the Senate are increasingly contingent on where the votes are in the house that makes this job especially tricky,” said the Republican strategist. “Some of that is a reflection of where the party is, and the conference is looking more like the party than it perhaps has in recent Congresses—more populist, less international, certainly more nationalist.”
In theory, it might be better for Republicans politically to keep the border as a campaign issue; this appears to be the route preferred by Trump, who has vociferously opposed the as-yet unreleased proposal. This could help Republican candidates facing off against vulnerable Democratic incumbents in red and purple states such as Montana, Ohio, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. (For his part, Senator Steve Daines—the chair of the campaign committee dedicated to electing more Republicans to the Senate—said on Sunday that he “can’t support a bill that doesn’t secure the border, provides taxpayer funded lawyers to illegal immigrants and gives billions to radical open borders groups.”)
However, disavowing border legislation tied to Ukraine funding could also be politically dangerous for McConnell and Senate Republican candidates. “The other way to look at it is, what if you had the chance to do something and you turn your back on it? I mean, do you think voters might punish you for failure to govern?” said Jennings. “It sort of cuts the knees out of what we’ve said, which is it’s an invasion, and it’s a humanitarian crisis, and it’s Joe Biden’s fault. But don’t worry, we can put it off for a year, depending on the outcome of a presidential election we may or may not win.”