The same Times/Siena poll found that a “generic Democrat” would vastly outperform Trump in every swing state, beating him by 12 points in Wisconsin, 8 in Georgia, and 7 in Pennsylvania. There are, of course, no “generic Democrats”—though that is a strong case for Gretchen Whitmer’s presidential candidacy. Still, presidential elections are choices between two candidates, typically two flawed candidates that lots of voters don’t particularly like.
One could argue that the 2024 presidential race is not yet a binary race, even though Trump has been the clear frontrunner and presumptive nominee for months. Trump’s refusal to participate in any Republican primary debates and his crowded courtroom schedule have likely, and somewhat ironically, boosted him in the polls. Though still a national force, and perhaps more deranged than ever, Trump is not the headline-generating banshee that he was between 2015 and January 6, 2021.
That will change as Republican primary voters begin to cast their ballots and the general election nears. At that point, Trump will have likely been tried—and possibly convicted—several times for a myriad of crimes. It’s not clear how voters will respond to the results of those trials. Being convicted will strengthen his connection with many in his base, but others will be turned off. Biden, though old—and don’t get me wrong, he is very old—can make a version of the case he did in 2020: that he is a steady hand (even if he is very old) and that Trump’s temperament, his sinister underlings, and his penchant for doing crimes makes him unfit for office.