With Conservatives facing a likely defeat in a general election expected sometime next year, the win—their only victory that day—offered a bit of juice to a party mired by scandal, internal turmoil, and a cost of living crisis. Never mind that Tuckwell also had distanced himself from the Tories: His campaign literature didn’t feature a single picture of Sunak’s face or the Conservative Party logo.
But the Tories weren’t the only ones who interpreted the by-election result as a climate referendum. Labour has already watered down a number of its green commitments, as it’s purged left-wing members under leader Keir Starmer. Since last month’s election, he’s voiced concerns about ULEZ and whether the party’s climate policies are still going too far. “We are doing something very wrong if policies put forward by the Labour Party end up on each and every Tory leaflet,” Starmer said in response to Tuckwell’s win. “I don’t think there is any doubt that ULEZ was the reason that we lost the election in Uxbridge,” he said elsewhere.
As some political commentators have pointed out, though, the Green Party got more votes than the narrow margin between Labour and Conservatives—potentially a sign that Labour voters are fleeing the party over softening climate commitments. There may have been other factors weighing on the by-election that had nothing to do with climate at all. As political scientist Rob Ford wrote: